This week’s coronavirus column

Our Director of Public Health, Dominic Harrison, has written another column for the Lancashire Telegraph.

This week’s focuses on what our local data is telling us about the risks from the Delta variant of concern.

Read it here:

Blackburn with Darwen had its first confirmed Delta variant case on 7th April 2021. We are ahead of the national curve on Delta Variant infection- but other UK areas are now following.

So what is our local data telling us now about the Delta Variant risks?

Hospitalisations: On Tuesday 8th June, East Lancashire Hospitals Trust total Covid admissions (i.e. for the whole of Pennine Lancashire 550,000 catchment area) showed that the number of (PCR) confirmed Covid inpatients was 31 , with 12 admissions in the previous 24 hours and 5 discharges. 11 of these cases were in critical care. 17 out of 31 had had no vaccinations, and about half of all admissions were below the age of 55. Half of the patients were Asian British and half white British. For the last three weeks, the hospital numbers have been rising as the confirmed cases rise, but not exponentially. Turnover and flow of patients in hospital is faster than previous waves with the vast majority, even from critical care, eventually discharged and the number of deaths minimal. This is because the average age of hospitalised patients is much younger than previous waves, and about half have some vaccination protection. This data suggests that if cases continue to rise across Pennine Lancashire as a whole, the hospital could eventually be swamped with Covid cases and activity, but not unmanageably so. This would delay the wider recovery of ‘business as usual’, but would not bring with it very high rates of deaths we saw in previous waves.

Deaths: For the whole of the pandemic, Blackburn with Darwen has had 414 Covid deaths. We had no Covid deaths in April, 6 deaths in May and none so far in June.

Rates: On the 8th June, Blackburn with Darwens Covid19 case rate was 516.4 per 100,000 and rising, the positivity rate was 13.6 and rising and the testing rate was 564.1 per 100,000 and falling. This is not good.

Rate of Rise: Although rates continue to rise, the last three weeks local surge response to the new Delta Variant in Blackburn with Darwen seems to be having some effect when compared to the rest of the region and the UK as a whole. Data confirmed on the 6th June shows the North West Regions seven day rise in case rates was 69%, England was at 45% and Blackburn with Darwens was at 33%. Bolton, having turned round its variant surge, was on minus 2%. That is good news.

Vaccination Protection: Out of 348 Local Authority areas in England, Blackburn with Darwen is placed 258th out of 348 Local Authorities (90th worst) for Dose 1 vaccinations, with 68.6% of the population having taken up their first dose. For dose 2 vaccinations, Blackburn with Darwen is 57th worst (291/348) with just 42.8% of the population having had their second dose. This is not good. We are pressing government to allow continued surge vaccination supplies across the Borough and to allow vaccination down to age 18 and over without exceptions.

On the 14th June the government will have to decide what it wants to do about the final Step 4 of national lockdown lifting on the 21st June. The data on which the decision is to be made is giving complex signals. It will require the judgement of Solomon.