Published Thursday 17 March 2022 at 13:47
Dominic Harrison: Director of Public health and Wellbeing Blackburn with Darwen
This week we are starting to see a sharp upturn in reported Covid case rates across the UK. The rise in cases may be due in part to the increased prevalence of the Omicron variant BA2, but it is also the inevitable effect of removing all legal controls on the spread of the virus.
As of 15 March, the weekly seven day Covid case rates across England are up by 60% at 502 per 100,000, and in the North West up by 70% at 398 per 100,000.
Blackburn with Darwen case rates however still remain amongst the lowest in the region and less than half the average England rate, but still up 50% at a rate of 216 per 100,000.
East Lancashire Covid hospitalisations have remained in the low 30s for a number of weeks, but jumped to 40 Covid in-patients this week. Thankfully, however, Covid cases in critical care still remain very low and on one day last week were at zero.
We now have a better understanding of the significant under-reporting of Covid cases. The national REACT survey is a ‘real–time’ survey of community Covid transmission that tests a representative sample of the population for Covid infection. This data is the best guide to the actual Covid infection level as it is not dependant on voluntary testing. It is led by Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI and seeks to understand how many people are currently infected or have been infected with the Covid virus in the previous week.
The data for February 2022 shows that the prevalence of Covid in the North West region was 2.58% between 8 February and 1 March 2022. If we apply that regional estimated prevalence of Covid to Blackburn with Darwen during the same period, we would have expected 3,870 cases. However, there were only 884 Covid cases reported during this period. This suggests that only one in four Covid cases are currently being reported into the system.
Omicron is often reported as ‘mild’ as it is generating many fewer hospitalisations and deaths as a percentage of all reported cases than previous Covid variants. However, this may be due largely to the much higher levels of both auto-immunity from previous infection and vaccinated immunity, which together offer very good protection across our communities.
The protection offered to the vaccinated however will not be there for those who are unvaccinated. High infection risks still remain for the unvaccinated, particularly those who are older, pregnant women and the clinically extremely vulnerable.
The vaccinated versus unvaccinated risks of Omicron infection are now well-illuminated by the effect of the Omicron surge in Hong Kong and New Zealand. The Financial Times analyst John Burn-Murdock reports that after keeping Covid at bay for two years, Omicron has hit both Hong Kong and New Zealand hard this spring, but he says the outcomes in each country could not be more different.
Hong Kong had 66% of the over 80s unvaccinated when the Omicron surge hit and it now has a Covid case fatality rate of 4.7%. New Zealand has only 2% of the over 80s unvaccinated and only has a Covid case fatality rate of 0.1%. The case fatality rate is ‘the proportion of cases of a disease or condition that are fatal within a specified period of time’.
There is a warning in this data to anyone not yet vaccinated – particularly those unvaccinated who are over 65, pregnant or clinically vulnerable.
Please do not think that because the UK Covid control measures are now lifted it will be ‘safer than ever’ to be out and about. For the unvaccinated, it is not.
Please get vaccinated now.
REACT Survey : Spiral: The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England during February 2022 (imperial.ac.uk)